2009 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims
Released on 10/15/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk10/10, 2009
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level521 K520 K500 K to 530 K514 K
4-week Moving Average - Level539.75 K531.5 K

Highlights
The rate of layoffs continues to ease as initial jobless fell 10,000 in the Oct. 10 week to 514,000 (prior week revised from 521,000). Continuing claims also fell, down 75,000 to a sub-6 million level at 5.992 million in data for the Sept. 26 week. The unemployment rate for insured workers, in contrast to the overall unemployment rate, continues to slip, down another tenth to 4.5 percent. Levels in this report are the lowest since the first quarter.

Special help for the unemployed is an important feature of economic policy. Emergency unemployment compensation rose a little more than 10,000 in the Sept. 26 week to 3.331 million. September's employment report proved to be a disappointment, showing greater weakness than August. But the early read on jobless claims offers a reason to be optimistic for this month's jobs report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell a sharp 33,000 in the October 3 week to a 521,000 level. The four-week average came in at 539,750, down 9,000 in the week. Continuing claims also fell, down 72,000 in data for the September 26 week to 6.040 million.

Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 


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