Highlights
Initial jobless claims are clearly on the decline, down 20,000 in the Oct. 31 week to 512,000 (prior week revised 2,000 higher to 532,000). The four-week average is down for the ninth straight week, 3,000 lower at 523,750 for a 25,000 decrease from late September. Continuing claims are also declining but here the change is likely a negative, due largely to the expiration of benefits. Continuing claims, in data for the Oct. 24 week, fell 68,000 to 5.886 million for the seventh decline in a row. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 4.4 percent, a level that is down 8 tenths from a peak in late June. In contrast, the overall employment rate has continued to climb, at 9.8 percent in September and is expected to increase another 1 tenth in Friday's data for October. Remember, improvement in both initial and continuing claims during September did not correlate to improvement in either payrolls or the household survey.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims edged down in the October 24 week by 1,000 to 530,000. The four-week average was 526,250, showing improvement from late September, down about 20,000. Continuing claims for the October 17 week fell a sharp 148,000 to 5.797 million. But the improvement reflects an uncertain mix of hiring together with the expiration of benefits with the latter the more likely reason.