2009 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims
Released on 11/25/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk11/21, 2009
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level505 K495 K460 K to 500 K466 K
4-week Moving Average - Level496.5 K

Highlights
Improvement in initial claims is picking up steam in what points to lower payroll losses for November's employment report. First time claims fell 35,000 in the Nov. 21 week to 466,000 (prior week revised 4,000 lower). The four-week average also broke below 500,000, down 16,500 to 496,500. Continuing claims are also falling, down 190,000 to 5.423 million in data for the Nov.. 14 week, but here the change also reflects the expiration of benefits. Those receiving extended benefits fell 34,600 to 539,500. Continuing claims may be clouded but initial claims offer perhaps more reason for optimism than any other piece of economic data.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims were unchanged in the November 14 week at 505,000. The four-week average fell 6,500 to 514,000, down for a convincing 11th straight week. Continuing claims, down 39,000 to 5.611 million in the November 7 week, extended what is an even longer run. The expiration of benefits, however, cloud the significance of this reading.

Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 


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