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Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Release Dates | Event Definitions | Today's Calendar.
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| Jobless Claims |
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Released on 12/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk11/28, 2009
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Prior | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| New Claims - Level | 466 K | 485 K | 471 K to 495 K | 457 K | | 4-week Moving Average - Level | 496.5 K | | | 481.25 K |
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the Nov. 28 week to 457,000, extending a run of impressive improvement that points squarely at improvement for total payrolls (prior week revised 4,000 lower). The four-week week average is lagging despite falling 14,250 in the week to 481,250. Continuing claims for the Nov. 21 week rose slightly to 5.465 million with the insured-workers unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, well down from a summer peak of 5.2 percent. The slight gain in continuing claims hardly puts a dent into 10 prior weeks of improvement, improvement reflecting new hiring but also, and likely to a large degree, the expiration of benefits. Those receiving extended benefits rose nearly 60,000 to just under 600,000 in data for the Nov. 14 week. Markets moved higher but only briefly in reaction to the report, one that will firm expectations for solid improvement in tomorrow's November employment report.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 35,000 in the November 21 week to 466,000. With the four-week average also breaking below 500,000, down 16,500 to 496,500, the latest numbers indicate that companies have reduced the pace of printing pink slips. This may be the early beginnings of recovery in the labor market. But most economists believe that the return to normalcy will be extremely slow. Continuing claims also fell in the latest week, down 190,000 to 5.423 million in data for the November 14 week, but the change also reflects the expiration of benefits.
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Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Why Investors Care
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
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Data Source: Haver Analytics
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