Highlights
Retail sales in June came in a little stronger than expected on increases gasoline and motor vehicle sales. Otherwise, sales were soft. Overall retail sales posted a 0.6 percent gain after rebounding 0.5 percent in May. The advance in June topped the market projection for a 0.5 percent increase. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales gained 0.3 percent, following a 0.4 percent boost in May. The consensus had expected a 0.6 percent increase. The latest increase in overall sales was led by a 5.0 percent surge in gasoline station sales. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales slipped 0.2 percent after easing 0.1 percent in May.

Outside of gasoline and motor vehicles, sales were mixed but mostly down. Notably, building materials & garden equipment fell 0.9 percent. Consumers are eating at home more as food services & drinking places also declined 0.9 percent. General merchandise slipped 0.4 percent. On the positive side, gains were led by electronics & appliance stores and by sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores, both gaining 0.9 percent.

Overall retail sales on a year-ago basis in June were down 9.0 percent, improving from down 9.8 percent in May. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year rate slipped to down 7.9 percent from down 7.6 percent.

The June boost in retail sales shows a sluggish consumer sector once autos and gasoline are discounted. Equities should not be very excited about the numbers after going into the detail. But stocks are focusing on earnings and Goldman Sachs beat estimates sharply before open.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Retail sales in May were quite good at the headline level but after wading through the detail, the May gain was merely respectable. Overall retail sales rebounded 0.5 percent after falling 0.2 percent in April. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales also made a comeback, gaining 0.5 percent, also following a 0.2 percent drop in April. However, a 3.6 percent jump in gasoline station sales was the primary factor behind the increase. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales edged up 0.1 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in April. Looking ahead, early indications from chain store sales are that retail sales are likely to be weak in June. Also, unit new motor vehicle sales declined slightly. However, the gasoline portion of retail sales is likely to be strong--oil prices in June jumped about $6 per barrel (roughly 11 percent) on a seasonally adjusted basis but contract oil prices will almost certainly dampen the increase.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/14 2/12 3/12 4/14 5/13 6/11 7/14 8/13 9/15 10/14 11/16 12/11 Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov