Highlights
The October jump in overall sales was led by a 7.4 percent rebound in auto sales after a 14.3 percent plunge in September. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales improved 0.2 percent, following a 0.4 percent rise in September. The latest number was lower than the consensus forecast for a 0.4 percent gain in October. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales increased 0.3 percent, matching September's gain. Gasoline surprisingly was flat in October, following a 0.9 percent increase the month before.

Outside autos and gasoline, sales were mixed. On the positive side, the biggest gainers were food services & drinking places, up 1.2 percent; nonstore retailers; and miscellaneous store retailers, up 0.9 percent. Two of the biggest losers were those still suffering from the slump in housing. Building materials & garden equipment dropped 2.4 percent while furniture & home furnishings slipped 0.8 percent. Sporting goods, hobby, book, & music store sales fell 1.2 percent.

Overall retail sales on a year-ago basis in October improved sharply to down 1.7 percent, from down 6.3 percent in September. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year rate increased to minus 2.6 percent in October from down 5.3 percent the prior month. The significant improvement in October was due both to a drop in the baseline in October 2008 and the rise in October 2009.

Based on the core of total less autos and gasoline, sales are sluggish although the components were mixed. Today's report shows the consumer still cautious about spending and should weigh on equities-especially with a significantly below expectations showing by the simultaneously release of Empire State manufacturing.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Retail sales in September dropped 1.5 percent after a 2.2 percent spike the month before. The decline was led by a 10.4 percent plunge in auto sales after a 7.8 percent boost in August. But outside of autos, sales were mostly healthy. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales advanced 0.5 percent, following a 1.0 percent jump in August. Looking ahead, an October rebound in unit new motor vehicle sales points to a headline gain for retail sales for the month with higher gasoline prices also coming into play. But outside of autos and gasoline, retail sales are likely to be sluggish.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/14 2/12 3/12 4/14 5/13 6/11 7/14 8/13 9/15 10/14 11/16 12/11 Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov