Econoday Report: Productivity and Costs December 3, 2009

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Productivity and Costs

Released on 12/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Nonfarm productivity - Q/Q change - SAAR	9.5 %	8.5 %	8.5 % to 8.8 %	8.1 %
Unit labor costs - Q/Q change - SAAR	-5.2 %	-4.2 %	-4.5 % to -4.0 %	-2.5 %

Highlights
Productivity in the third quarter was revised down with the Labor Department's second estimate for the quarter. Third quarter productivity was revised to an annualized 8.1 percent surge from the initial estimate of a 9.5 percent boost. The market consensus had expected a revision to an 8.5 percent increase. Unit labor costs were revised up somewhat (less negative) to an annualized decline of 2.5 percent, compared to the original estimate of a 5.2 percent fall. The consensus estimate was for a 4.2 percent decline.

The downward revision to productivity was primarily due to a downward revision to growth of third quarter output in the nonfarm business sector-to 2.9 percent annualized from the initial 4.0 percent. Unit labor costs were revised up based on the lower growth in output and higher compensation estimates. Compensation growth was revised up to an annualized 5.4 percent from the initial third quarter number of 3.8 percent growth. Hours worked were little revised.

Year-on-year, productivity rose to up 4.0 percent in the third quarter from 1.9 percent in the second quarter. Year-ago unit labor costs fell to minus 1.4 percent from up 0.3 percent in the second quarter.

Today's revisions indicated that labor costs are not as weak as previously believed but they are still subdued. The new numbers might have had a negative impact on equities, but the big news is the lower-than-expected jobless claims which boosted equity futures and bond yields.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm productivity in the third quarter surged 9.5 percent annualized, following a revised 6.9 percent boost in the second quarter. This was the largest gain in productivity since the third quarter of 2003, when it rose 9.7 percent. In tandem, unit labor costs dropped an annualized 5.2 percent after declining a revised 6.1 percent in the second quarter. The latest spike in productivity reflected both higher output and fewer hours worked. Looking ahead, we are likely to see a downward revision to third quarter productivity and upward revision to unit labor costs based on the second estimate for GDP growth in the same period. Real GDP was revised down to 2.8 percent from the advance estimate of 3.5 percent. The output component of productivity and unit labor costs is based on much of the same source data as GDP.

Definition
Productivity measures the growth of labor efficiency in producing the economy's goods and services. Unit labor costs reflect the labor costs of producing each unit of output. Both are followed as indicators of future inflationary trends. Why Investors Care

Nonfarm productivity growth has remained healthy during this expansion, but it has prevented employment from growing very fast and this hurt income growth to some extent. Unit labor costs tend to fall when productivity growth accelerates and then rises as productivity growth abates.

Data Source: Haver Analytics

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 2/5 3/5 5/7 6/4 8/11 9/2 11/5 12/3

Released For: Q4:08 Q4:08 Q1:09 Q1:09 Q2:09 Q2:09 Q3:09 Q3:09

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