Highlights
The Empire State Report confirms what last week's industrial production report hinted strongly at, that is stability if not growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector. The Empire State index jumped to 12.08 from July's minus 0.55 for its best reading of the recession. New orders show a second month of actual month-to-month growth at 13.43 and a nice acceleration from July's 5.89. Shipments, at 14.11, also show a second month of growth. The pace of destocking is slowing with inventories at minus 22.34 vs. July's minus 36.46. The pace of layoffs is likewise slowing: minus 7.45 vs. minus 20.83. Note that deceleration in destocking and deceleration in layoffs are two key factors that are very likely to push the ISM's manufacturing index over 50, perhaps as soon as the August report.

Other August data from the Empire State report include a gain in prices paid, up more than 3 points to 13.83 to indicate rising demand for inputs likely centered in energy. But demand isn't by any stretch strong enough to create pricing power for finished goods as prices received fell more than 4 points to minus 12.77. Stocks and commodities got an instant but limited lift from today's report which points to strength in Thursday's more closely watched regional manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Fed.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Empire State manufacturing index general business conditions index rose to minus 0.55 in July from minus 9.41 in June, just falling short of the breakeven mark. A zero reading would indicate no month-to-month change or flat growth. But we may see incrementally positive growth next month, if new orders follow through. The new orders index jumped into positive territory at 5.89 from minus 8.15 in June.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/15 2/17 3/16 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/17 9/15 10/15 11/16 12/15 Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec