Econoday Report: Empire State Mfg Survey November 16, 2009

2009 Economic Calendar

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Empire State Mfg Survey

Released on 11/16/2009 8:30:00 AM For November, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
General Business Conditions Index - Level	34.57	29.0	26.0 to 35.0	23.51

Highlights
Month-to-month growth this month has slowed in the New York region, according to the Empire State index which fell back more than 11 points to 23.51. The 23.51 level is still well beyond the break-even point of zero, indicating strong growth but again growth that is a little less strong than October. The new orders component, at 16.66 in November vs. October's 34.57, points to continued slowing in the months ahead. Employment, at 1.32, indicates only the slightest positive bias for month-to-month hiring. Despite high fuel prices, gains in raw material prices slowed as prices paid fell back about 9 points to 10.53. Lower raw material prices are consistent with slowing demand. The 6-month outlook remains very positive, a contrast to the run of weak confidence reports on the consumer side. As far as manufacturing reports go, the Empire State report has been the strongest. The Philadelphia Fed's report, which has been much tamer, will be one of Thursday's highlights.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Empire State manufacturing index jumped to 34.57 in October from 18.88 in the previous month. The Empire State headline index has been above breakeven since August and has been steadily rising. We are likely to see another healthy positive number for November as the new order index for October came in at 30.82 and the unfilled orders index is back into positive territory.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. Why Investors Care

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.

Data Source: Haver Analytics

2009 Release Schedule

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