Highlights
Indications are building for month-to-month acceleration in December. The Chicago survey of area purchasers, purchasers from both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, rose sharply, up nearly 4 points to 60.0. This survey has now posted three monthly gains all at accelerating rates (60.0 Dec, 56.1 Nov, 54.2 Oct). New orders, at 63.8, have held over 60 for three straight months, which is quite a feat given that each month's comparison is increasingly difficult. A slowing in new order growth for January, that is a reading below 60, would not be a surprise (note that any reading above 50 indicates month-to-month growth).

Order backlogs are also strong in today's report, showing month-to-month growth at 53.0. The rise in backlogs should help employment which jumped more than 9 points in the month to 51.2 to indicate month-to-month net hiring. This reading will catch the attention of those who are looking for payroll expansion in next week's employment report.

Input prices aren't yet a worry showing a second month of mild increase, at 54.9 in December. Today's report together with the Philadelphia Fed report are pointing to acceleration for next week's ISM business surveys, both of which showed strong new order growth in November.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Chicago PMI rose nearly 2 points in November to 56.1 to indicate a month-to-month increase in the pace of overall business activity in the area. New orders rose 1.4 points to a very strong 62.8, a plus-60 level that, because of its strength, will be hard to match in the coming months. Prices paid showed a mild month-to-month increase at 52.6.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/30 2/27 3/31 4/30 5/29 6/30 7/31 8/31 9/30 10/30 11/30 12/30 Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec