Just when you think the economic tide has sunk, Chicago purchasers report wide, deep strength during July. The Chicago PMI rose to 62.3, a level right at the top of the recovery and indicating very strong, if not robust, month-to-month growth.
Growth is centered where it should be, in new orders which jumped 5-1/2 points to 64.6. Backlog orders shot up nearly seven points to 57.6. Plenty of orders means lots of production and even, perhaps, demand for new employees. The employment index rose nearly 2-1/2 points to 56.6, well above break-even 50 to indicate hiring in the month. Other details also show strength in a report that shows no weakness.
The only question is the report's sample size which is often small. The data aren't definitive but do point to strength for next week's national purchaser reports from the ISM.
Market Consensus before announcement
The Chicago PMI edged down six tenths in June to 59.1 but remained well over 50 to indicate significant month-to-month growth for the area's business activity. The new orders index for June, however, slipped to 59.1 from a prior string of 60-plus readings.