2011 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 12/23/2011 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2011
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change-0.7 %0.0 %1.9 %0.5 % to 5.5 %3.8 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change7.5 %8.4 %12.1 %
Ex-transportation - M/M0.7 %1.5 %0.4 %-0.5 % to 0.9 %0.3 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr11.7 %12.9 %7.2 %

New orders for civilian aircraft led to a huge spike in durables orders. Otherwise, durables orders were modestly positive. New factory orders for durables surged 3.8 percent, following a no change the prior month (prior revised estimate, down 0.5 percent). The November boost was much higher than the consensus forecast for a 1.9 percent jump. Excluding transportation, durables grew 0.3 percent after a 1.5 percent gain in October (prior revised estimate, up 1.1 percent). The November rise fell short of expectations for a 0.4 percent increase. However, upward revisions are offsetting.

Outside of transportation, new orders were led by primary metals and machinery with fabricated metals and "other" also gaining. Weakness was seen in computers & electronics and also electrical equipment.

A disappointment was in civilian capital equipment excluding aircraft which dipped 1.2 percent after a 0.9 percent decline in October. Shipments decreased 1.0 percent in November after a 0.8 percent fall the month before.

Overall, durables point to continued gains in manufacturing but not at a robust pace outside of aircraft.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders in October fell a revised 0.5 percent, following a decline of 1.4 percent the prior month. Excluding transportation, durables advanced 1.1 percent after a 0.8 percent rebound in September. Weakness in October was led by transportation which fell 5.1 percent after dropping 7.5 percent in September. Within transportation, weakness was in nondefense aircraft.

Note that prior values in the consensus box reflect the initial estimates for durables and durables excluding transportation.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/243/244/275/256/247/278/249/2810/2611/2312/23
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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