2011 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation
Released On 7/8/2011 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2011
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change54,000 25,000 105,000 65,000  to 160,000 18,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level9.1 %9.0 %9.0 % to 9.2 %9.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.0 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.4 hrs34.4 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.4 hrs34.3 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change83,000 73,000 125,000 100,000  to 183,000 57,000 

Highlights
Today's employment report is abysmal. We have had two months in a row of essentially no growth. Nonfarm payroll employment in June slowed to a crawl with an 18,000 gain, following a revised 25,000 rise in May, and revised 217,000 in April. The market median forecast was for a 105,000 boost. Also, the April and May revisions were down net 44,000. Once again, the government sector held down payroll numbers as private nonfarm payrolls outpaced the total with an increase of 57,000 in June, following a 73,000 advance in May. Analysts had projected a 125,000 gain in June.

Most major industries were little changed. Goods-producing jobs edged up 4,000, following a 3,000 rise in May. Manufacturing jobs rebounded 6,000 after a 2,000 dip in May. However, construction declined 9,000 after decreasing 4,000. Mining advanced 8,000, following 9,000 gain the prior month.

Growth in private service-providing jobs slowed to a rise of 53,000 after a 70,000 increase the prior month. Leading the increase in June was leisure & hospitality, up 34,000 with professional & technical services, up 24,000. Health care continued to trend upward with a 14,000 boost. On the downside, standouts were educational services, down 17,400; financial activities, down 15,000; and temp help, down 12,000.

The government sector shed another 39,000, following a 48,000 drop in May. This latest decrease was led by local government but declines were also seen at state and federal levels.

Average hourly earnings also slowed June, coming in at no change, following a 0.3 percent rise the prior month. The consensus forecast was for a 0.2 percent increase. The average workweek for all workers in June slipped to 34.3 hours from 34.4 the month before. The June figure came in lower than the market projection for 34.4 hours.

On a year-ago basis, overall payroll jobs in June improved to a still soft 0.8 percent from 0.6 percent the previous month.

From the household survey, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.2 percent from 9.1 percent in May. The consensus expected 9.0 percent.

The June jobs report reinvigorates the argument that the economy is in a soft patch. While a number of indicators have picked up strength, employment is key for the consumer sector to add to economic growth. On the news, equity futures dipped significantly, bond prices firmed, and crude oil declined.

Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in May grew a modest 54,000, following a revised 232,000 jump in April and a 194,000 increase in March. Sluggishness in payroll jobs was broad based. Private nonfarm payrolls advanced 83,000 in May, following a 251,000 increase in April. Government jobs contracted 29,000, following a 19,000 dip in April. This latest decrease was largely local government, led down by local government education. On a positive note, wage growth improved in May as average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent, following a 0.1 percent uptick in April. The average workweek for all workers in May held steady at 34.4 hours. Turning to the household survey, the unemployment rate nudged up to 9.1 percent from 9.0 percent in April. Household employment actually rose 105,000 for the month but was outpaced by a 272,000 gain in the labor force.

Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/72/43/44/15/66/37/88/59/210/711/412/2
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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