2011 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey
Released On 6/15/2011 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level11.88 14.0 3.8  to 18.1 -7.8 

Highlights
For the first time since November, monthly business conditions in the New York manufacturing region contracted in what is an ominous, though nevertheless still isolated, indication for the national economy. The Empire State index fell nearly 20 points in the June reading to minus 7.79 in what the report describes as a "steep" decline. New orders fell nearly 21 points to minus 3.61, again a negative reading indicating month-to-month contraction compared to May. Shipments are even worse, down nearly 35 points to minus 8.02.

Other details include faster delivery times, which is an indication of weak activity, and a moderating rate of inventory accumulation which is another sign of weakness. Input costs remain extremely high while pricing power for output prices is easing. The report also shows a moderating rise in the number of employees and a contraction in the workweek.

If the sister report on Thursday from the Philadelphia Fed also turns negative, talk will definitely pick up for contraction in the national ISM manufacturing report for June. National data for May on the manufacturing sector will be posted at 9:15 a.m. ET this morning in the industrial production report.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Empire State manufacturing index in May fell nearly 10 points to 11.88, a level that's well over zero to indicate month-to-month growth but below April's 21.70 level to indicate a slowing rate of growth. The news was not so bad with new orders and shipments still strong, though again showing slower rates of growth than April. Job indications were special positives with the number of employees on the rise and the workweek on the rise.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/153/154/155/166/157/158/159/1510/1711/1512/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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