2011 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 7/15/2011 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-7.8 8.0 3.0  to 15.0 -3.76 

The best news that can be squeezed from the Empire state report is that the rate of contraction is easing. The headline index came in at minus 3.76 in July, a sub-zero reading indicating month-to-month contraction in business conditions but above minus 7.79 to indicate a slightly less severe rate of contraction compared to June. Shipments are a clear positive, showing monthly expansion at plus 2.22 vs June's minus 8.02. Employment, at plus 1.11, also expanded though at a slower rate than June's 10.20.

Other readings are more downbeat including a minus 5.45 for new orders, the second negative reading in a row, and a minus 12.22 reading for unfilled orders that suggests manufacturers in the region are aggressively working down their backlog. Inventories also contracted as did the workweek. Price data confirm overall slowing with both input and output pressures easing.

Today's report points to a second month of weakness for the Philly Fed report on Thursday as well as to trouble for the July ISM report. But these are anecdotal reports, based on small samples and using diffusion methodologies. Today's industrial production report, to be released at 9:15 a.m. ET this morning, will offer definitive data on June.

Consensus Outlook
The Empire State manufacturing index fell nearly 19.67 points in the June reading to minus 7.79 in what the report describes as a "steep" decline. Slowing was widespread in the report. There was a moderating rise in the number of employees and a contraction in the workweek. Shipments were even worse, down 33.77 points to minus 8.02. Looking ahead, the July data are likely to be soft as the June new orders index dropped 20.80 points to minus 3.61, a negative reading indicating month-to-month contraction compared to May

The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/153/154/155/166/157/158/159/1510/1711/1512/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

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