2011 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 8/15/2011 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-3.76 1.0 -10.0  to 8.5 -7.72 

The first indications on the August manufacturing sector are strongly negative. The Empire State index fell nearly four points into more deeply negative territory, at minus 7.72 to indicate monthly contraction in general business conditions. Details show a third straight monthly contraction in new orders, down more than two points to minus 7.82. Unfilled orders are contracting very deeply, to minus 15.22 vs July's minus 12.22. With new orders on the slide and backlog having been worked down, the outlook for the region's shipments and employment is negative.

The six-month outlook is in fact the most negative aspect of the August report. The six-month outlook for new orders, at plus 6.52, and for shipments, at plus 7.61, are the lowest since 9/11. The overall outlook reading at 8.70 is down nearly 25 points in the month for the lowest reading since early 2009.

Hopefully the six-month readings will be only be temporary, tied specifically to the debt-ceiling drama and what is hopefully now faded market volatility. Industrial production data tomorrow will offer hard data on the manufacturing sector during July while the Philly Fed's report on Thursday will offer more anecdotal data on this month's conditions.

Consensus Outlook
The Empire State manufacturing index came in at minus 3.76 in July, a sub-zero reading indicating month-to-month contraction (albeit slight) in business conditions but still an improvement from minus 7.79 in June to indicate a slightly less severe rate of contraction. Shipments were a clear positive, showing monthly expansion at plus 2.22, compared to June's minus 8.02. Employment, at plus 1.11, also expanded though at a slower rate than June's 10.20. Other readings were more downbeat including a minus 5.45 for new orders, the second negative reading in a row, and a minus 12.22 reading for unfilled orders that suggests manufacturers in the region are aggressively working down their backlog.

The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/153/154/155/166/157/158/159/1510/1711/1512/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

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