2011 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey
Released On 10/17/2011 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-8.82 -3.25 -7.50  to 0.00 -8.48 

Highlights
Business conditions in the New York manufacturing region are contracting for the fifth month in a row according to the Empire State index for October which shows little change at minus 8.48 vs September's minus 8.82. Positives include new orders which at plus 0.16 show a fractional monthly gain to end two months of contraction. Shipments, at plus 5.33, show a moderate monthly gain. Also positive is employment, at plus 3.37, to indicate a mild monthly rise in the sample's workforce.

Now the negatives. Unfilled orders, at minus 4.49, are contracting for the fourth month in a row. Manufacturers in the region have been keeping shipments and employment up by working down backlogs which however are becoming increasingly thin. Inventories, at minus 8.99, are contracting for the fourth month in a row suggesting that the region's manufacturers, hit by weakness in new orders, see their inventories as too high. Delivery times, at minus 1.12, have been getting a bit shorter hinting at over capacity in the shipping sector as truck and rail firms chase fewer and fewer orders.

Pressures on both input and output prices are easing in what is also consistent with slowing conditions. Another negative is the six-month outlook which at 6.74 is down from 13.04 in the prior month and is at a new low for the recovery. This echoes other readings on sentiment, including those on consumer sentiment, that spirits are unusually depressed. The next look at this month's conditions in the manufacturing sector will be Thursday with the Philly Fed's report.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Empire State manufacturing index for September nudged marginally lower in contraction territory, posting at minus 8.82 versus minus 7.72 the month before. September was the fourth straight negative single-digit reading. October also is likely to be weak as new orders were also in the negative column for the fourth straight month at minus 8.00 and compared to minus 7.82 in August.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/153/154/155/166/157/158/159/1510/1711/1512/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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