2011 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Sentiment
Released On 3/25/2011 9:55:00 AM For Mar, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Sentiment Index - Level68.2 68.0 63.0  to 70.5 67.5 

Highlights
Consumer sentiment fell steeply in March but less steeply in the latter part of March, which is about the only good news in a sobering consumer sentiment report. The final March reading came in at 67.5 vs 68.2 at mid-month, which implies a 66.8 reading in the latter part of the month. The degree of decline from 68.2 to 66.8 is much less severe than the decline from February's final reading of 77.5 to mid-month's 68.2.

Expectations, the leading component of the index, sagged in the final reading to 57.9 from a mid-month 58.3. Current conditions fell a little more than one point to 82.5. These readings are among the weakest of the recovery especially the expectations index which is down 10 points from March last year.

Inflation expectations didn't worsen in the latter part of the month which is good news, but they remain significantly heightened from February. One-year expectations are 4.6 percent, up from 3.4 percent last month, with five-year expectations at 3.2 percent, up from 2.9 percent.

These results reflect the greater turmoil in Libya as well as the Middle East and, of course, reflect the crisis in Japan. The report warns strongly that consumers are concerned that high gas and food prices will hurt their incomes, in fact it notes that the fewest consumers in more than 50 years expect their income to increase. Tuesday's Conference Board report on consumer confidence will offer detailed assessments on income expectations and on the March jobs market and whether the drop in jobless claims is having an effect on their outlook. Today's report is having little initial reaction in the markets.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index or mid-March showed a dramatic drop to 68.2 from the February final reading of 77.5. The drop was even more notable given that the second half of February was very strong (based on implied numbers) due to moderate improvement in the job market. Mid-March weakness was centered in the leading component, the expectations index which plunged 13.3 points to 58.3. This indicates that consumers are less optimistic about where the economy is headed. The current conditions subcomponent of consumer sentiment held up better than expectations, slipping only 3.3 points to 83.6 from the February final reading of 86.9.

Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Preliminary estimates for a month are released at mid-month. Final estimates for a month are released near the end of the month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Consumer sentiment is mainly affected by inflation and employment conditions. However, consumers are also impacted by current events such as bear & bull markets, geopolitical events such as war and terrorist attacks. Investors monitor consumer sentiment because it tends to have an impact on consumer spending over the long run (although not necessarily on a monthly basis.)
 

 

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/141/282/112/253/113/254/154/295/135/276/177/17/157/298/12
Release For: JanJanFebFebMarMarAprAprMayMayJunJunJulJulAug
 
Released On: 8/269/169/3010/1410/2811/1111/2312/912/22
Release For: AugSepSepOctOctNovNovDecDec
 


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