Econoday Economic Report: Consumer Sentiment June 17, 2011

2011 Economic Calendar

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Consumer Sentiment

Released On 6/17/2011 9:55:00 AM For Jun(p), 2011

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Sentiment Index - Level	74.3	74.5	71.5 to 78.5	71.8

Highlights
Pessimism on the economic outlook and pessimism on current economic conditions pulled consumer sentiment lower through the first two weeks of this month. The index fell 2-1/2 points to 71.8, at the low end of expectations and nearly erasing the strong improvement during May. If there is good news it's that levels are still above the sub-70s of April and March. The index's two components show a 2.7 point decline to 66.8 for expectations, which is the leading component, and a 2.3 point decline for current conditions to 79.6.

Inflation expectations are stabilizing and are narrowly mixed in today's report with the one-year outlook dipping one tenth to 4.0 percent and the five-year rising one tenth to 3.0 percent. Watch for this report at month end as well as the consumer confidence report also at month end. Their results will likely reflect the job situation in the month which, based on early indications from jobless claims, may be improving.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index for May came in at 74.3, well up from a mid-month 72.4 and implying a 76.2 reading over the last two weeks. The second half estimate is based on the full month survey sample being about evenly split between the first half of the month and the latter portion.

Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Preliminary estimates for a month are released at mid-month. Final estimates for a month are released near the end of the month. Why Investors Care

Consumer sentiment is mainly affected by inflation and employment conditions. However, consumers are also impacted by current events such as bear & bull markets, geopolitical events such as war and terrorist attacks. Investors monitor consumer sentiment because it tends to have an impact on consumer spending over the long run (although not necessarily on a monthly basis.)

2011 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/14 1/28 2/11 2/25 3/11 3/25 4/15 4/29 5/13 5/27 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12

Release For: Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug

Released On: 8/26 9/16 9/30 10/14 10/28 11/11 11/23 12/9 12/22

Release For: Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec