2011 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Sentiment
Released On 10/28/2011 9:55:00 AM For Oct, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Sentiment Index - Level57.5 58.0 57.0  to 59.0 60.9 

Highlights
Optimism is finally appearing as the consumer sentiment index jumped to 60.9 for final October, a reading that compares with a very weak 57.5 at mid-month to imply a 64.3 level for the final two weeks of the month. The 64.3 implied reading puts the last two weeks of this month on a par with July which was of course just before the shocks of August threw sentiment to 30 year lows.

The improvement the last two weeks is centered in the leading component of expectations which jumped 4.8 points to 51.8. The current conditions component also rose, up 1.3 points to 75.1. Inflation expectations show no change from mid-month, at 3.2 percent for the one-year outlook and 2.7 percent for the five-year.

Measures of consumer spirits have been severely depressed and have contrasted sharply with overall resilience in the economy and especially strength in retail sales. Today's report, backed by the rise in expectations, points to further gains for consumer spirit data as they hopefully begin to converge with spending data. Stocks moved up from opening lows in early reaction to today's report.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell 1.9 points at the mid-month October reading to 57.5, extending recently sharp weakness going back to the August shock month when equities plunged. Weakness was centered once again in the leading component of expectations which at 47.0, was down 2.4 points from September's final reading. The assessment of current conditions also declined, down 1.1 points to a 73.8 level that continues to show less severe weakness than expectations.

Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Preliminary estimates for a month are released at mid-month. Final estimates for a month are released near the end of the month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Consumer sentiment is mainly affected by inflation and employment conditions. However, consumers are also impacted by current events such as bear & bull markets, geopolitical events such as war and terrorist attacks. Investors monitor consumer sentiment because it tends to have an impact on consumer spending over the long run (although not necessarily on a monthly basis.)
 

 

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/141/282/112/253/113/254/154/295/135/276/177/17/157/298/12
Release For: JanJanFebFebMarMarAprAprMayMayJunJunJulJulAug
 
Released On: 8/269/169/3010/1410/2811/1111/2312/912/22
Release For: AugSepSepOctOctNovNovDecDec
 


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