2011 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index
Released On 5/4/2011 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level57.3 57.0 54.5  to 60.0 52.8 

Highlights
Sudden slowing in the rate of month-to-month growth hits new orders and business activity during April, headlines from an ISM non-manufacturing report where the overall index came in at a much lower-than-expected level of 52.8. Hiring also moderated and now shows only slight month-to-month growth. Supplier deliveries slowed as did exports, both may reflect Japanese supply effects. Other details show still elevated input price pressures and, in a positive, strong and steady growth in backlogs.

April marks a pivot to the slow side for this report which had been showing very strong rates of growth at the outset of the year. The dip in employment may build concern further for trouble in Friday's jobs report. Stocks are moving lower in reaction to this report.

Market Consensus before announcement
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey in March eased 2.4 points to 57.3, which is still well above 50 to indicate month-to-month growth. But it is down from February's 59.7 which is the recovery's high. Slowing was especially pronounced in output as indicated by the business activity index which declined 7.2 points to 59.7, again above 50 to indicate growth but below February's rate of growth. The new orders index also moderated yet very slightly, down three tenths to 64.1. But this pace is still somewhat high, indicating a healthy rate of growth for orders.

Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy—indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/34/55/46/37/68/39/610/511/312/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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