2011 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index
Released On 8/3/2011 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level53.3 53.0 52.1  to 55.5 52.7 

Highlights
A second month of slowing in new orders and deepening contraction in backlog orders undercut strength in the ISM non-manufacturing composite index for July that edged only slightly lower to a 52.7 level that indicates moderate monthly expansion compared to June. New orders, which were in the 60s as recently as March, fell nearly two points to 51.7 and are now testing the monthly breakeven level of 50. Backlog orders are already well below 50, down 4-1/2 points in the month to 44.0. Weak orders do not point to overall strength in the months ahead.

What did give the composite index a boost in July was business activity, a component that's akin to a production index on the manufacturing side and which rose more than 2-1/2 points to 56.1. Other readings include a slowing in the expansion of the sample's labor force, at 52.5 vs 54.1 in June.

Today's report hints at continued slow growth for the overall economy given, however, that new orders can hold above 50 in the months ahead. Stocks are edging lower following release of today's report.

Market Consensus before announcement
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey in June edged down 1.3 points to 53.3. The latest reading remained above 50 to indicate month-to-month growth. The new orders index slowed 3.2 points to 53.6. However, the employment index printed at a reading of 54.1. While certainly not sizzling, it was in positive territory and 0.1 point higher than May. The positive reading-albeit modestly positive-is still a vote of confidence by businesses that forward momentum in the economy continues.

Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy - indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/34/55/46/37/68/39/610/511/312/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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