2011 Economic Calendar
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Factory Orders  
Released On 7/5/2011 10:00:00 AM For May, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Factory Orders - M/M change-1.2 %1.0 %-0.3 % to 2.1 %0.8 %

May proved to be a solid bounce-back month for the factory sector where new orders rose 0.8 percent vs April's disappointing 0.9 percent decline (revised upward from minus 1.2 percent). The data are split between durable goods and non-durable goods with new orders on the durable side, boosted by gains for aircraft and motor vehicles, up a very sharp 2.1 percent (revised upward from 1.9 percent) and with the non-durable side, which is the new data in this report, down 0.2 percent. Note that non-durable goods are especially sensitive to price changes in this case a dip back for energy prices.

Data on unfilled orders are very positive, up 0.9 percent and adding further to strong levels that will help guarantee consistent strength in shipments should new orders ease. Shipments in May were very soft with only a 0.1 percent gain. Inventories rose 0.8 percent in what looks to be excessive relative to shipments but not relative to new and backlog orders.

Indications on the manufacturing sector during June are mixed with several regional readings on the soft side and with last week's ISM report showing only mild strength for new orders. Coming data on the manufacturing sector are factory payroll and workweek data in Friday's employment report followed a week after that by the industrial production report.

Consensus Outlook
Factory orders fell 1.2 percent in April as a price-fueled 0.6 percent rise for new orders of non-durable goods failed to offset a steep 3.6 percent retreat on the durable side where the monthly declines were wide and deep. More recently, durables orders in May rebounded 1.9 percent, following a 2.7 percent decline the month before. New durables orders excluding transportation also made a comeback, increasing 0.6 percent after a 0.4 percent drop in April. However, softer prices in the energy sector may weigh on the nondurables component of total factory orders for May.

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.  Why Investors Care
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/42/33/43/315/36/27/58/38/3110/411/312/5
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct

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