2011 Economic Calendar
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Chicago PMI  
Released On 1/31/2011 9:45:00 AM For Jan, 2011
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Business Barometer Index - Level68.6 66.8 65.0 63.0  to 67.7 68.8 

Business conditions in the Chicago area have been even stronger in January than they were in December. The Chicago PMI is a surprisingly robust 68.8, outside even the highest estimate (prior month revised downward to 66.8). Strength is right where you want it, in new orders which surged to 75.7. Output is surging in the area with production at 73.7. These readings are all far above breakeven 50 indicating month-to-month growth and are all above December's levels indicating month-to-month acceleration in growth. These readings are also the best of the recovery.

Chicago's businesses, which in this sample include all areas of the economy, are scrambling to find workers as employment jumped nearly six points to 64.1 which is by far the best reading of the recovery. Backlogs are rising as are input prices. This report doesn't include a reading on output prices which are very important in January as businesses try to make price-hikes stick for the year.

This report is released to paying clients first, several minutes before the 9:45 a.m. ET public release. News of the gains quickly leaked into the financial markets which however are showing little reaction. Today's data point to accelerating gains for this week's ISM reports which are already at or near recovery highs.

Consensus Outlook
The Chicago PMI for December jumped more than six points to 68.6. Details show major acceleration in new orders, to a 73.6 level from a reading of 67.2 in November. The strong posting for new orders suggests another healthy PMI figure for January.

The Institute For Supply Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Since October 2011, the survey has been conducted by Market News International. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms both are surveyed. Hence, it is not directly comparable to pure manufacturing surveys. Readings above 50 indicate an expanding business sector.  Why Investors Care
The ISM-Chicago survey (traditionally and informally called the Chicago PMI) registers manufacturing and non- manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region somewhat mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity. Many like to compare the Chicago-PMI with following business day's ISM manufacturing index but they do not always move in tandem since the national ISM is only for manufacturing.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/312/283/314/295/316/307/298/319/3010/3111/3012/29
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

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