| Treasury Budget |
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Released On 4/12/2011 2:00:00 PM For Mar, 2011
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Prior | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Treasury Budget - Level | $-222.5 B | $-189.0 B | $-190.0 B to $-189.0 B | $-188.2 B |
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Highlights
The Treasury deficit in March came in about as expected at $188.2 billion. Half way through the fiscal year, the government's deficit is $829.4 billion for a year-on-year deepening of more than 15 percent. Outlays are running nearly 11 percent higher this fiscal year and, in a special item for March, include $5.9 billion for housing and economic recovery programs. Net interest expense, up 10 percent this fiscal year, shows the most pressure of the outlay side. Growth in receipts is only seven percent but individual taxes, up 21 percent, are a special strength.
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Market Consensus before announcement
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a seasonal worsening in the deficit in February to $222.5 billion from a shortfall of $49.8 billion in January. Five months into the 2011 fiscal year, the government's deficit stands at $641.3 billion. February's gap of $222.5 billion was slightly larger than the $220.9 billion gap in February last year. There are no special factors in the February data. Looking ahead, the month of March typically shows a deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of March has been $77.5 billion and $98.6 billion over the past 5 years. The March 2010 deficit came in at $65.4 billion.
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Definition
The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy.
Why Investors Care
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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