Highlights
July sales of existing homes didn't live up to the indications from pending home sales in what is a new disappointment for the housing sector. Existing home sales fell 3.5 percent in July to a 4.67 million annual rate that is well below expectations for 4.92 million. Supply on the market at the current sales pace turned higher to 9.4 months from 9.2 and 9.1 in the two prior months. Heavy supply isn't good for prices which slipped, down 0.9 percent for the median price to $174,000 and down 0.8 percent for the average to $224,200. Year-on-year prices, which had turned positive in June, are back in the negative column, at minus 4.4 percent for the median and minus 3.2 percent for the average.

The regional breakdown does offer some offset to the weakness as contraction was centered heavily in the West where sales fell 12.6 percent. But sales in the South, the largest region, also contracted though only 1.6 percent. The Northeast and Midwest show small gains. The breakdown by types of homes shows losses centered in the most important component, single-family units. Condos show no change in the month.

Pending home sales, which are based on contract signings, failed to signal July's weakness in final sales of existing homes which suggests that many sales must have fallen through perhaps due to credit and valuation snags. New home sales data for July will be posted Tuesday.

Market Consensus before announcement
Existing home sales failed to pick up in June, slipping 0.8 percent to an annual adjusted rate of 4.770 million and following May's 3.8 percent decline. More homes are coming on the market, at an unadjusted 508,000 for an 11 percent gain from May. Certainly, some of the increased supply is seasonal but months' supply is now back up to 9.5 months at the current sales rate versus 9.1 months in May. This is still lower than the recent high of 12.5 months in July 2010. Price readings were positive but come with a couple of caveats. The median price jumped a monthly 8.9 percent to $184,300 with the year-on-year rate moving into positive ground for the first time this year at plus 0.8 percent. Prices in this report are not seasonally adjusted and spring and summer are when prices are seasonally stronger. Additionally, prices are not a repeat transactions measure (same house price changes) and shifts in composition of sales (high end versus low end) affect the median prices.

2011 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/20 2/23 3/21 4/20 5/19 6/21 7/20 8/18 9/21 10/20 11/21 12/21 Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov