2011 Economic Calendar
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Leading Indicators
Released On 3/17/2011 10:00:00 AM For Feb, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Leading Indicators - M/M change0.1 %1.0 %0.3 % to 1.2 %0.8 %

Highlights
A decline in unemployment claims helped give a big lift to the index of leading economic indicators which rose 0.8 percent in February, well up from the prior month's 0.1 percent gain. The yield spread, reflecting the Fed's near zero policy rate at the short end, remains the index's leading strength. Building permits, data released yesterday, were the report's biggest negative.

While claims have continued to come down so far this month and short rates remain low, the March outlook for the index's other components is less certain. Stock prices, a big plus in February, have been coming down as did the mid-month reading on consumer sentiment.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators slowed to 0.1 percent in January, versus 0.8 percent in December. January's biggest contributor was the yield spread reflecting low front rates and what have been rising long rates. A slowing in deliveries was the second biggest indication of future economic strength followed by the stock market and by consumer expectations, the latter having shown tangible improvement so far this year. Weighing on the index was a dip in building permits. The coincident index posted a sluggish 0.1 percent gain in January but an important question is whether severe winter weather weighed on activity, meaning that the first quarter could be stronger than suggested by initial data.

Definition
A composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead overall economic activity. This indicator was initially compiled by the Commerce Department but is now compiled and produced by The Conference Board. It has been revised many times in the past 30 years -- particularly when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points.  Why Investors Care
 

 

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/202/173/174/215/196/177/218/189/2210/2011/1812/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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