2011 Economic Calendar
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Leading Indicators  
Released On 6/17/2011 10:00:00 AM For May, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Leading Indicators - M/M change-0.3 %0.2 %-0.5 % to 0.5 %0.8 %

Consumer expectations are a major swing factor in today's surprising 0.8 percent gain for the index of leading economic indicators. But this data is for May and, released just a few minutes ago, data on consumer sentiment for the first two weeks of June are clearly negative. Another big swing factor is money supply which is a volatile category that could easily reverse in June. Two other pluses are also uncertain as orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods are both imputed by the Conference Board given the absence of hard data for May on these readings.

On the clearly positive side are jobless claims which are continuing to improve this month. And hopefully building permits will add to their big improvement in May and hopefully stock prices can recover by month end. Markets are reacting to this report but May's outsized gains, boosted by the way by easy comparisons with weakness in April, will make a difficult comparison for the June report.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators dipped 0.3 percent in April following a 0.7 percent jump in March. The weakest factor was initial jobless claims which sliced off 0.33 percentage points from the index's growth. Vendor performance subtracted 0.21 percentage points. Also negative were building permits and the factory workweek, new orders for consumer goods, and new orders for nondefense capital goods. Adding lift as always is the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury note and fed funds (adding 0.35 percentage points) with positive contributions also from stock prices, money supply, and consumer expectations. The coincident index edged up 0.1 percent in April versus a 0.2 percent rise the prior month.

A composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead overall economic activity. This indicator was initially compiled by the Commerce Department but is now compiled and produced by The Conference Board. It has been revised many times in the past 30 years -- particularly when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points.  Why Investors Care

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/202/173/174/215/196/177/218/189/2210/2011/1812/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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