2011 Economic Calendar
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Leading Indicators  
Released On 7/21/2011 10:00:00 AM For Jun, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Leading Indicators - M/M change0.8 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.6 %0.3 %

Financial measures are giving a lift to the index of leading economic indicators where other components are mostly soft. The index rose 0.3 percent in June on top of May's outsized gain of 0.8 percent. The top factor for June is an increase in money supply with the second factor once again the yield spread between long rates and short rates with the latter being kept near zero by the Federal Reserve. Building permits are a slight plus as is a slowing in vendor performance, a slowing that points to activity in the supply chain. The negative side is led by consumer expectations which have slid back toward recovery lows. The stock market is also a negative for June as is the factory workweek.

The Conference Board, which compiles the report, notes that the results are being held back by special factors including Japanese-related disruptions, unusually severe weather, and the debt ceiling uncertainty. Apart from these, the Conference Board believes the economy is in a solid but slow uptrend.

Consensus Outlook
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators jumped 0.8 percent in May, following a 0.4 percent decline the month before. As usual for many months, the rate spread between the 10-year T-note and fed funds rate led strength for the month, adding 0.32 percentage points. Next, consumer expectations added 0.23 percentage points with building permits contributing 0.22 percentage points to the overall index gain. Positives also came from lower initial jobless claims and increases in new orders for consumer goods, new orders for nondefense capital goods, stock prices, and money supply. The only negative contribution came from vendor performance. The average workweek in manufacturing had a zero contribution. The coincident index has been sluggish in recent months, edging up only 0.1 percent in both May and April.

The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.  Why Investors Care

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/202/173/174/215/196/177/218/189/2210/2011/1812/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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