2011 Economic Calendar
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Leading Indicators  
Released On 8/18/2011 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Leading Indicators - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %-0.2 % to 0.6 %0.5 %

The index of leading economic indicators rose a very solid 0.5 percent in July but the gain may not be repeated in August. July's strength is centered strongly in money supply which is an up-and-down component. Also the stock market was a positive in July but certainly doesn't look favorable right now. This report's long-term central strength, due to Federal Reserve accommodation, has been the yield spread, one that will also give August a lift but to a lesser extent given the downturn underway in long rates. Consumer expectations were a negative in July and may again be a negative in August based on last week's consumer sentiment report. Vendor performance, in this case fast delivery times, was a negative for July and based on this morning's Philly Fed report and the Empire State report on Monday, deliveries could very well be a negative again in August. One positive is unemployment claims which improved in July and which are thankfully improving again in August. This report, despite its name, has a lagging feel to it this month given the ongoing downturn in the financial markets and in some economic reports.

Consensus Outlook
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.3 percent in June on top of May's outsized gain of 0.8 percent. The top factor for June was an increase in money supply with the second factor once again the yield spread between long rates and short rates with the latter being kept near zero by the Federal Reserve. Building permits were a slight plus as is a slowing in vendor performance, a slowing that points to activity in the supply chain. The negative side was led by consumer expectations which have slid back toward recovery lows. The stock market is also a negative for June as is the factory workweek. The composite index of coincident indicators confirms current softness in growth, edging up only 0.1 percent-the same rate as in May.

The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.  Why Investors Care

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/202/173/174/215/196/177/218/189/2210/2011/1812/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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