2011 Economic Calendar
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Leading Indicators  
Released On 12/22/2011 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Leading Indicators - M/M change0.9 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.6 %0.5 %

The index of leading economic indicators rose a very solid 0.5 percent in November following October's 0.9 percent surge. The leading positive is the rate spread which reflects the Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy. The second positive is building permits which appear to be building steam in what is very good news for the construction sector. Consumer expectations are a big positive in the month and judging from this morning's consumer sentiment report look to be a big positive for December. Another positive that's likely to extend through this month is the November improvement in jobless claims which gave the fifth strongest contribution to the month's 0.5 percent gain.

A decline in the factory workweek is the largest in the short list of negatives, and perhaps one that will reverse this month given early indications of strength in last week's Empire State and Philly Fed reports. A speeding up in vendor deliveries is the second largest negative.

This report is very solid and points, as the Conference Board says, to easing risk of an economic downturn. Other readings include 0.1 percent gains for both the coincident and lagging indexes.

Consensus Outlook
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators posted a very strong 0.9 percent rise for October. Gains among the components were wide and convincing. The largest positive contribution came from building permits (0.27 percentage points), followed by the rates spread between the 10-year T-bond and fed funds (0.22 percent points). Also providing positive lift were the factory workweek, the stock market, consumer expectations, new orders for consumer goods & materials, new orders for nondefense capital goods, and an easing number of unemployment claims. There's only one negative in the month and it is marginal with vendor deliveries coming in with a 0.01 percentage point negative contribution.

The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.  Why Investors Care

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/202/173/174/215/196/177/218/189/2210/2011/1812/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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