| Jobless Claims |
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Released On 2/23/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk2/18, 2012
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| New Claims - Level | 348 K | 351 K | 355 K | 330 K to 363 K | 351 K | | 4-week Moving Average - Level | 365.25 K | 366.00 K | | | 359.00 K | | New Claims - Change | -13 K | -10 K | | | 0 K |
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Highlights
Jobless claims are signaling significant improvement for the February jobs report on top of January's strong improvement. Initial claims for the February 18 week total 351,000, unchanged from the slightly upward revised prior week. For the eleventh time in 12 weeks, the four-week average shows improvement, down 7,000 to 359,000. The four-week average is down nearly 20,000 from the month-ago comparison which is substantial improvement.
Continuing claims in data for the February 11 week fell 52,000 to 3.392 million with the four-week average down 46,000 to 3.453 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 2.7 percent.
There's little initial reaction to today's report which however should increase demand for risk through the session.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 in the February 11 week to 348,000. And for the 10th time in 11 weeks, the 4-week average was down, falling 1,750 to 365,250. Continuing claims were also lower, down a very sizable 100,000 in data for the February 4 week to 3.426 million. The 4-week average was down 8,000 to 3.493 million.
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Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Why Investors Care
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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