Highlights
The 350,000 level is being tested with momentum pointing to a cyclical trek toward 300,000. Initial claims fell 5,000 in the March 17 week to a better-than-expected 348,000 vs a revised 353,000 in the prior week. The four-week average is down 1,250 to 355,000. Claims peaked early on in the recession at over 600,000 and were last below 300,000 during the peak of the expansion in 2006.

But the improvement in recent weeks has been slow which muddies the month-to-month gauge for underlying job growth. Both the current level and four-week average are down about 5,000 from mid-February, only a slight improvement and not one hinting at a robust breakout for March payroll growth or a major decline in the unemployment rate. But, importantly, the trend is in the right direction. Today's report is likely to be a modest plus for the stock market.

Other data in today's report include a 9,000 dip in the latest week for continuing claims and a one tenth dip in the unemployment rate for insured workers to 2.6 percent.

Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims in the March 10 week declined 14,000 to 351,000. In a partial offset, the prior week was revised 3,000 higher. The four-week average was unchanged at 355,750 which is the recovery low. There are no special factors distorting the data. Continuing claims also moved convincingly lower, down 81,000 in the latest data to 3.343 million and taking down the four-week average by 26,000 to 3.394 million.