2012 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 6/14/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk6/9, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level377 K380 K375 K370 K to 385 K386 K
4-week Moving Average - Level377.75 K378.50 K382.00 K
New Claims - Change-12 K-9 K6 K

There's no improvement in jobless claims which unfortunately does not point to any improvement for payroll growth or for the unemployment rate. Initial claims rose 6,000 in the June 9 week to a 386,000 level that is a noticeable 9,000 over the Econoday consensus. And the prior week is now at 380,000 which is 3,000 higher than the initial estimate. The four-week average is moving in the wrong direction, up three times in a row with a 3,500 gain to 382,000 in the latest week. This is slightly higher than the month-ago comparison which is a negative indication for the June employment report.

Continuing claims have been back and forth, down 33,000 in data for the June 2 week to 3.278 million. The four-week average is down slightly to a 3.282 million level that however is no better than the month-ago comparison. At 2.6 percent, the unemployment rate for insured workers has, in what is good news, been unchanged at a recovery low for the last three months.

This data isn't going to trigger much optimism that the June employment report will be much better than the disappointing reports of May and April. The Labor Department reports nothing unusual in the data.

Consensus Outlook
Initial jobless claims for the holiday shortened June 2 saw initial jobless claims falling 12,000 to a slightly better-than-expected level of 377,000. Despite the decline, the four-week average was up for a second straight week. The average, at 377,750 for a 1,750 rise, was no lower than it was a month ago. Another offset was a rise for continuing claims, up a sizable 34,000 in data for the May 26 week to 3.293 million. This reading hit its recovery low at 3.247 million back in late April and has since been trending higher with the four-week average up 12,000 at 3.280 million.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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