2012 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims
Released On 8/9/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk8/4, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level365 K367 K367 K360 K to 385 K361 K
4-week Moving Average - Level365.5 K366.00 K368.25 K
New Claims - Change8 K10,000 K-6 K

Highlights
The trend in initial jobless claims is offering a slightly upbeat signal for payroll growth and the unemployment rate. Claims fell 6,000 in the August 4 week to 361,000 and though the 4-week average, at 368,250, is up 2,250 from the prior week it is still nearly 10,000 lower than the trend this time last month. Prior data are revised to show a 367,000 level in the July 28 week, which is up 2,000 from the initial reading, with the 4-week average revised 500 higher to 366,000.

Data on continuing claims are less upbeat with the level for the July 28 week up 53,000 to 3.332 million and the 4-week average up 5,000 to 3.305 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers, at 2.6 percent, remains where it's been since March.

This report isn't likely to build much early optimism for the August employment report due to doubts over adjustment issues tied to summer retooling in the auto sector. Still, the Labor Department reports nothing unusual in today's results.

Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims rose 8,000 in the July 28 week in what was the smallest change after three weeks of severe volatility tied to adjustment for summer auto retooling. The latest level of 365,000 was right in line with the 4-week average of 365,500 which offers an interesting gauge for the full-month July to June comparison, and this comparison, which was down more than 20,000 from the late June average, points to improvement in the labor market. Continuing claims in data for the July 21 week fell 19,000 to 3.272 million with the 4-week average down 11,000 to 3.299 million for the lowest reading since early June.

Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

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