2012 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 3/28/2012 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change-4.0 %-3.6 %2.9 %0.9 % to 6.4 %2.2 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change8.1 %8.7 %12.2 %
Ex-transportation - M/M-3.2 %-3.0 %1.5 %0.4 % to 2.6 %1.6 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr5.7 %6.1 %8.5 %

Highlights
Durables orders rebounded in the latest month but disappointed in magnitude though the excluding transportation component was as expected. In February, new factory orders for durables rebounded 2.2 percent, following a revised 3.6 percent drop in January (prior revised estimate, down 3.7 percent) and 3.3 percent jump in December. The market consensus called for a 2.9 percent gain.

Excluding transportation, durables made a 1.6 percent comeback after a revised 3.0 percent decline in January (prior revised estimate, down 3.2 percent), and a 2.3 percent advance in December. February's boost came in marginally higher than analysts' projection for a 1.5 percent rise.

The very volatile transportation rebounded 3.9 percent in February after dropping 5.3 percent the month before. Subcomponent strength was led by defense aircraft with increases also seen in nondefense aircraft and motor vehicles.

Outside of transportation, gains were widespread. Improvement was seen in primary metals, up 1.3 percent; fabricated metals, up 1.3 percent; machinery, up 5.7 percent; and computers & electronics, up 2.7 percent. Losing ground were electrical equipment, down 2.5 percent and "other," down 0.6 percent.

Business investment in equipment has been choppy as new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rebounded 1.2 percent in February after dropping 3.7 percent in January and rising 3.5 percent in December. Shipments for this series gained 1.4 percent in February, following a 3.0 percent dip in January and a 2.8 percent advance in December.

On a monthly basis, the volatility in transportation is not a big deal. Although the ex-transportation component rebounded and met expectations, the overall trajectory of manufacturing is not as strong as hoped but is still providing forward momentum for the economy.

On the news, equity futures eased slightly while Treasury rates were little changed.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders in January fell back a revised 3.7 percent, following a revised 3.3 percent jump in December. Excluding transportation, durables fell a revised 3.0 percent after a 2.3 percent advance in December. By components, weakness was led by transportation but other components were mostly down.

Definition
Durable goods orders are new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory hard goods. The report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. The advance release provides early estimates and is revised about a week later by the factory orders report.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/283/284/255/246/277/268/249/2710/2511/2712/21
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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