2012 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 8/24/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change1.6 %1.6 %1.9 %-1.0 % to 7.0 %4.2 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change8.0 %
Ex-transportation - M/M-1.1 %-2.2 %0.4 %-0.8 % to 1.0 %-0.4 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr3.1 %

A second month of large aircraft orders fed a second month of large gains for total durable goods orders which jumped 4.2 percent in July on top of a 1.6 percent jump in June. But when looking at orders excluding transportation equipment the story is one of softness with the reading at minus 0.4 percent following a downwardly revised minus 2.2 percent result in June.

Civilian aircraft orders surged 78 percent in July following a 63 percent surge in June. But also part of the July gain for transportation equipment are motor vehicle orders which jumped nearly 13 percent following a slight decrease in June. Motor vehicles are a much larger component than civilian aircraft and gains for vehicles point to rising activity for related suppliers as well as gains for related employment.

Motor vehicles are a very important business for primary metal manufacturers whose orders rose solidly in July. But there is weakness in other components including electrical equipment, communications equipment, machinery, and fabricated metals.

Aircraft is skewing the reading for nondefense capital goods orders which surged 6.8 percent overall but fell 3.4 percent excluding aircraft. The decline in the ex-aircraft reading for capital goods will have economists trimming their outlook for third-quarter GDP.

Other readings include a big 2.6 percent rise for total shipments, a solid 0.8 percent rise for unfilled orders, and a moderate rise of 0.7 percent for inventories in a build that does not point to imbalances.

Manufacturing is getting a needed lift right now from aircraft, though there are questions on the outlook for the sector when aircraft orders swing back down. Stock futures are moving lower following today's report.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders jumped 1.3 percent in June after rebounding 1.5 percent in May. Overall orders were mostly boosted by transportation which spiked 8.0 percent in June, following a 3.6 percent increase the prior month. Both nondefense and defense aircraft orders rose sharply while motor vehicles edged down. Excluding transportation, durables orders fell 1.4 percent following a 0.7 percent gain in May. Outside of transportation, weakness was widespread in June though following a notable gain in May.

Numbers reflect revisions from the more recent total factory orders re

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/283/284/255/246/277/268/249/2710/2511/2712/21
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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