2012 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 11/27/2012 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change9.9 %9.2 %-0.8 %-2.5 % to 0.8 %0.0 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change2.5 %1.8 %2.3 %
Ex-transportation - M/M2.0 %1.7 %-0.4 %-2.2 % to 0.5 %1.5 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr-1.6 %-1.8 %-2.3 %

The latest durables headline number is not great-other than it did beat expectations. But there was modest strength in the details. New factory orders for durables in October were unchanged after rebounding 9.2 percent up September and after a massive 13.1 percent fall in August. Market expectations were for a 0.8 percent decline. The transportation component tugged down on October data. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.5 percent after gaining 1.7 percent in September. Analysts forecast a 0.4 percent dip in orders excluding transportation.

The transportation component fell 3.1 percent after a 29.7 percent surge in September. All three major subcomponents declined-motor vehicles, down 1.6 percent; nondefense aircraft, down 5.8 percent; and defense aircraft, down 4.3 percent.

Outside of transportation, modest strength was in all major industries except for "other" which was flat.

Investment orders returned to the positive column as nondefense capital goods orders rebounded 1.7 percent in October, following a 0.4 percent dip the prior month. However, current quarter activity is still soft with shipments for this series slipping 0.4 percent, following a 0.3 percent decline in September.

Overall, the numbers are not stellar. But they do suggest that manufacturing is not declining but is either temporarily flat or marginally rising.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders rebounded a monthly 9.8 percent in September after a sharp 13.1 percent plunge in August. The comeback was largely due to aircraft orders within the transportation component-where weakness was in August. Excluding transportation, orders rose 2.0 percent after decreasing 2.0 percent in August. Civilian aircraft (Boeing) has really jerked around the total and especially the transportation component. The transportation component rebounded a monthly 31.3 percent after a 33.7 percent plummet in August. Outside of transportation, new orders were mixed. Gains were seen in primary metals, machinery, and "other." Declines were seen in fabricated metals, computers & electronics, and electrical equipment. Numbers reflect revisions from the more recent total factory orders report.

Durable goods orders are new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory hard goods. The report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. The advance release provides early estimates and is revised about a week later by the factory orders report.  Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/283/284/255/246/277/268/249/2710/2511/2712/21
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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