2012 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 11/27/2012 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change9.9 %9.2 %-0.8 %-2.5 % to 0.8 %0.0 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change2.5 %1.8 %2.3 %
Ex-transportation - M/M2.0 %1.7 %-0.4 %-2.2 % to 0.5 %1.5 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr-1.6 %-1.8 %-2.3 %

The latest durables headline number is not great-other than it did beat expectations. But there was modest strength in the details. New factory orders for durables in October were unchanged after rebounding 9.2 percent up September and after a massive 13.1 percent fall in August. Market expectations were for a 0.8 percent decline. The transportation component tugged down on October data. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.5 percent after gaining 1.7 percent in September. Analysts forecast a 0.4 percent dip in orders excluding transportation.

The transportation component fell 3.1 percent after a 29.7 percent surge in September. All three major subcomponents declined-motor vehicles, down 1.6 percent; nondefense aircraft, down 5.8 percent; and defense aircraft, down 4.3 percent.

Outside of transportation, modest strength was in all major industries except for "other" which was flat.

Investment orders returned to the positive column as nondefense capital goods orders rebounded 1.7 percent in October, following a 0.4 percent dip the prior month. However, current quarter activity is still soft with shipments for this series slipping 0.4 percent, following a 0.3 percent decline in September.

Overall, the numbers are not stellar. But they do suggest that manufacturing is not declining but is either temporarily flat or marginally rising.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders rebounded a monthly 9.8 percent in September after a sharp 13.1 percent plunge in August. The comeback was largely due to aircraft orders within the transportation component-where weakness was in August. Excluding transportation, orders rose 2.0 percent after decreasing 2.0 percent in August. Civilian aircraft (Boeing) has really jerked around the total and especially the transportation component. The transportation component rebounded a monthly 31.3 percent after a 33.7 percent plummet in August. Outside of transportation, new orders were mixed. Gains were seen in primary metals, machinery, and "other." Declines were seen in fabricated metals, computers & electronics, and electrical equipment. Numbers reflect revisions from the more recent total factory orders report.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/283/284/255/246/277/268/249/2710/2511/2712/21
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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