2012 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation
Released On 2/3/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change200,000 203,000 135,000 110,000  to 189,000 243,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level8.5 %8.5 %8.3 % to 8.7 %8.3 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.4 hrs34.5 hrs34.4 hrs34.3 hrs to 34.4 hrs34.5 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change212,000 220,000 150,000 125,000  to 203,000 257,000 

Highlights
The January jobs report posted stronger than expected with payroll gains and unemployment dip. Payroll jobs in January advanced 243,000 after jumping 203,000 in December (originally 200,000) and rising 157,000 in November (prior estimate up 100,000). The net revisions for November and December were up 60,000. Analysts projected a 135,000 boost for January. Today's report includes annual revisions to payroll series, including benchmark revisions to payroll levels and new seasonal factors. Household data received annual revisions last month but reflect updated population estimates in January data.

As for some time, private payrolls outstripped the total, increasing 257,000 in January, following a gain of 220,000 in December. Expectations were for a 150,000 rise in private payrolls. Private-sector employment was led by gains in professional and business services (+70,000), leisure and hospitality (+44,000), and manufacturing.

In the private sector, goods-producing jobs advanced 81,000 after a 71,000 boost in December. Manufacturing jobs increased 50,000 in January after rising 32,000 the month before. Construction employment gained 21,000 after increasing 31,000 in December. Mining increased 10,000, following an 8,000 advance the prior month. Private service-providing jobs jumped 176,000 in January, following a 149,000 expansion in December.

The public sector continued to shrink as government employment slipped 14,000, following a 7,000 decline in December.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent in January, following a 0.1 percent increase the prior month. The consensus called for a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek for all workers in January held steady at 34.5 hours. Analysts projected 34.4 hours.

From the household survey, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent from 8.5 percent in December. The market median forecast was for an 8.5 percent unemployment rate.

On the news, Treasury rates rose and equity futures gained. Today's report is favorable toward improvement in personal income and industrial production. Despite worries about adverse seasonal adjustment issues, the January employment report indicates that the recovery is gaining momentum.


Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in December jumped a relatively healthy 200,000 after rising a revised 100,000 in November and increased a revised 112,000 in October. Private payrolls again outstripped the total, gaining 212,000 in December, following increases of 120,000 in November and 134,000 in October. Average hourly earnings strengthened in December, rising 0.2 percent after no change in November. The average workweek for all workers in December posted at 34.4 hours, compared to 34.3 hours in November. From the household survey, the unemployment rate unexpectedly continued to decline, slipping to 8.5 percent after dropping to 8.7 percent in November from 8.9 percent in October.

With the release of January 2012 data on February 3, 2012, the establishment survey will introduce revisions to nonfarm payroll employment, hours, and earnings data to reflect the annual benchmark adjustment for March 2011 and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Not seasonally adjusted data beginning with April 2010 and seasonally adjusted data beginning with January 2007 are subject to revision.

Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/94/65/46/17/68/39/710/511/212/7
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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