Econoday Economic Report: GDP March 29, 2012

2012 Economic Calendar

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GDP

Released On 3/29/2012 8:30:00 AM For Q4f:2011

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR	3.0 %	3.0 %	2.8 % to 3.9 %	3.0 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR	0.9 %	0.9 %	0.9 % to 1.0 %	0.9 %

Highlights
The economy in the fourth quarter was essentially as earlier believed except domestic demand was modestly stronger. For its final estimate, the Commerce Department kept fourth quarter GDP growth at 3.0 percent, matching the second estimate for the overall number. The median market forecast was for an unrevised 3.0 percent. The latest quarter was stronger than the 1.8 percent rise in the third quarter.

Demand numbers were essentially unchanged but incrementally better on the domestic side of purchases. Final sales of domestic product increased an annualized 1.1 percent, matching the prior estimate of 1.1 percent for the fourth quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers (excludes net exports) rose a revised 1.3 percent, compared to the second estimate of 1.1 percent. Both measures remained significantly slower than in the third quarter.

Component changes were modest. Of mention were a small downward revision to inventory investment and a slight upward revision to goods PCEs.

On a year-ago basis, GDP was up 1.6 percent, compared to 1.5 percent in the third quarter.

Economy-wide inflation according to the GDP price index was unrevised at a 0.9 percent annualized rate. Analysts expected an unrevised 0.9 percent rise. The latest figure is a notable slowing from 2.6 percent in the third quarter.

Basically, the economy was where we earlier believed. More recent monthly data show improvement but only moderate improvement.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care

Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/27 2/29 3/29 4/27 5/31 6/28 7/27 8/29 9/27 10/26 11/29 12/20

Release For: Q4a: Q4p: Q4f: Q1a: Q1p: Q1f: Q2a: Q2p: Q2f: Q3a: Q3p: Q3f:

A: Advance P: Preliminary F: Final