| Retail Sales |
|
Released On 3/13/2012 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2012
|
|
Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Retail Sales - M/M change | 0.4 % | 0.6 % | 1.2 % | 0.7 % to 2.1 % | 1.1 % | | Retail Sales less autos - M/M change | 0.7 % | 1.1 % | 0.8 % | 0.4 % to 1.7 % | 0.9 % | | Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change | 0.6 % | 1.0 % | 0.6 % | 0.3 % to 0.9 % | 0.6 % |
|
|
|
Highlights
Overall retail sales posted a healthy gain for February on robust auto sales and higher gasoline prices. But the narrow core measure also was healthy and there were upward revisions. Retail sales in February rose a strong 1.1 percent after gaining 0.6 percent the month before (originally up 0.4 percent). Analysts had called for a surge of 1.2 percent. Strength was in the motor vehicles component which rebounded 1.6 percent after dipping 1.6 percent in January. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales jumped 0.9 percent in February after increasing 1.1 percent in January (originally up 0.7 percent). The consensus projection was for a 0.8 percent rise. Lifted by higher prices, gasoline sales increased 3.3 percent after a 1.9 percent jump the prior month.
Sales excluding autos and gasoline in February improved 0.6 percent, following a 1.0 percent gain the prior month (originally up 0.6 percent). Gains were widespread. The Econoday consensus was for a 0.6 percent increase in February.
In addition to autos and gasoline, strength was seen in clothing & accessories, up 1.8 percent; building material & garden supplies, up 1.4 percent; sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores, up 1.0 percent; electronics & appliances, up 1.0 percent; and food services & drinking places, up 0.8 percent. Declines were seen in furniture & home furnishings, down 1.2 percent, and general merchandise, down 0.1 percent.
The consumer is increasingly willing to spend but certainly is not happy about spending more on gasoline. The February numbers and upward revisions will have economists raising their estimate for first quarter GDP.
On the news, equity futures rose somewhat. However, this report lowers the odds of any new Fed initiative on easing.
|
|
Market Consensus before announcement
Retail sales in January jumped 0.4 percent after no change the month before. Restraining the gain was weakness in the auto component which dropped 1.1 percent, following a 2.5 percent jump in December. Excluding autos, retail sales surged 0.7 percent in January after decreasing 0.5 percent in December. Gasoline sales increased 1.4 percent after a 2.6 percent drop in December. Sales excluding autos and gasoline in January rebounded 0.6 percent, following a 0.2 percent dip the prior month. Gains were broad based. More recently, unit new motor vehicle sales in February surged a monthly 6.5 percent, suggesting a strong gain in the auto component of retail sales.
|
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.
Why Investors Care
|
| |
![[Chart]](showimage.asp?imageid=22184)
|
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Legal Notices | ©Copyright 1998-2013 Econoday, Inc.
|
powered by
![[Econoday]](images/logo.gif)
|
|
|
|
