| Retail Sales |
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Released On 5/15/2012 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2012
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Retail Sales - M/M change | 0.8 % | 0.7 % | 0.1 % | -0.3 % to 0.8 % | 0.1 % | | Retail Sales less autos - M/M change | 0.8 % | | 0.2 % | -0.4 % to 0.8 % | 0.1 % | | Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change | 0.7 % | | 0.3 % | -0.2 % to 0.5 % | 0.1 % |
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Highlights
Retail sales slowed sharply in April but from a still strong March. Retail sales in April rose 0.1 percent, following a 0.7 percent increase the month before (originally up 0.8 percent). The consensus forecast was for a 0.1 percent advance.
Motor vehicle sales lifted the broad number, gaining 0.5 percent in April after a 0.2 percent gain the month before.
Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales increased 0.1, following a 0.8 percent boost in March (originally up 0.8 percent). Analysts expected a 0.2 percent rise. Gasoline sales tugged down, declining 0.3 percent, following a 1.0 percent jump in March.
Sales excluding autos and gasoline in April edged up 0.1 percent, following a 0.8 percent boost the prior month (originally up 0.7 percent). Core components were mixed with strength in nonstore retailers; furniture & home furnishings; and sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores. Weakness was led by building materials & garden supplies and clothing.
Retail sales on a year-ago basis in April posted at up 6.4 percent, compared to 6.6 percent in March. Excluding motor vehicles, sales were up 5.9 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 6.4 percent the prior month.
The bottom line is that sales held up decently in April after a robust March. The trend is good.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Retail sales in March advanced 0.8 percent after increasing 1.0 percent the prior month. Motor vehicle sales gained 0.9 percent, following a 1.3 percent increase in February. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales gained 0.8 percent after increasing 0.9 percent in February With prices still rising in March on average, gasoline sales increased 1.1 percent after a 3.6 percent surge the month before. Sales excluding autos and gasoline in March rose a healthy 0.7 percent, following a 0.5 percent jump the prior month.
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Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.
Why Investors Care
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![[Chart]](showimage.asp?imageid=22522)
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Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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