| Retail Sales |
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Released On 6/13/2012 8:30:00 AM For May, 2012
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Retail Sales - M/M change | 0.1 % | -0.2 % | -0.2 % | -0.7 % to 0.1 % | -0.2 % | | Retail Sales less autos - M/M change | 0.1 % | -0.3 % | -0.1 % | -0.4 % to 0.2 % | -0.4 % | | Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change | 0.1 % | -0.1 % | 0.4 % | 0.2 % to 0.4 % | -0.1 % |
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Highlights
Retail sales in May were pulled down by a decrease in gasoline prices. Retail sales in May declined 0.2 percent, following a 0.2 percent dip in April (originally up 0.1 percent). The consensus projection was for a 0.2 percent decrease.
Motor vehicle sales actually added to sales, gaining 0.8 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in April.
Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales fell 0.4 percent, following a 0.3 percent decline in April (originally up 0.1 percent). The market consensus was for down 0.1 percent. Gasoline sales dropped a sharp 2.2 percent after declining 1.4 percent in April.
Sales excluding autos and gasoline in May posted a modest 0.1 percent dip, matching the decline in April (originally up 0.1 percent). Core components were mixed but mostly down.
Weakness was led by gasoline stations (down 2.2 percent) and building materials & garden equipment (down 1.7 percent). Also declining were food & beverages, health & personal care, sporting goods & hobby, general merchandise, miscellaneous store retailers, and food services & drinking places.
On the plus side, nonstore retailers gained 1.3 percent, clothing & accessories rose 0.9 percent, electronics & appliances advanced 0.8 percent, and furniture & furnishings increased 0.4 percent.
Overall, consumer spending turned sluggish in May and April was softer than earlier believed. However, a key question that remains is whether atypically warm weather in the winter shifted sales forward at the expense of later months.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Retail sales in April rose 0.1 percent, following a 0.7 percent increase the month before.
Motor vehicle sales lifted the broad number, gaining 0.5 percent in April after a 0.2 percent gain the month before. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales increased 0.1, following a 0.8 percent boost in March (originally up 0.8 percent). Gasoline sales tugged down, declining 0.3 percent, following a 1.0 percent jump in March. Sales excluding autos and gasoline in April edged up 0.1 percent, following a 0.8 percent boost the prior month.
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Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.
Why Investors Care
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![[Chart]](showimage.asp?imageid=22679)
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Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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