| Retail Sales |
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Released On 7/16/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2012
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Retail Sales - M/M change | -0.2 % | -0.2 % | 0.2 % | -0.2 % to 0.4 % | -0.5 % | | Retail Sales less autos - M/M change | -0.4 % | | 0.1 % | -0.3 % to 0.2 % | -0.4 % | | Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change | -0.1 % | -0.1 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % to 0.5 % | -0.2 % |
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Highlights
Retail sales in June were much softer than expected, including auto sales which contradicted manufacturers' numbers for the month. Retail sales in June fell 0.5 percent, following a 0.2 percent decrease in May (originally down 0.2 percent). Analysts forecast a 0.2 percent increase for June.
Motor vehicle sales dropped 0.6 percent, following a 0.8 boost in May. In the latest month, unit new auto sales posted a moderate gain, which should show up in personal consumption expenditures later this month.
Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales decreased 0.4 percent after declining 0.4 percent in May (originally down 0.4 percent). Market expectations were for a 0.1 percent gain. Gasoline sales were a big factor, dropping 1.8 percent, following a 2.0 percent fall in May.
Sales excluding autos and gasoline in June slipped 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent dip in May (originally down 0.1 percent). Core sales showed widespread weakness in June.
Outside of autos and gasoline, weakness was led by building materials & garden equipment (down 1.6 percent) and sporting goods & hobby (down 1.6 percent). Also declining were furniture & home furnishings, electronics & appliance stores, health & personal care, general merchandise, and food services & drinking places.
The few categories showing gains were led by miscellaneous store retailers and nonstore retailers, both up 0.5 percent. Also rising modestly were clothing & accessories stores and food & beverage stores.
Retail sales on a year-ago basis in June came in at up 3.8 percent, compared to 5.1 percent in May. Excluding motor vehicles, sales were up 3.0 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 4.0 percent the month before.
The consumer sector has lost momentum with total sales excluding autos and gasoline in negative territory for three months in a row. Personal consumption numbers in the personal income report are likely to be a little better for June after the Commerce Department swaps out survey numbers for autos with actual numbers from manufacturers. Still, the consumer is not carrying as much of the burden of the recovery as earlier with job growth so sluggish.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Retail sales in May declined 0.2 percent, following a 0.2 percent dip in April. The drop in the latest month was led by gasoline sales. Motor vehicle sales actually added to sales, gaining 0.8 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in April. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales fell 0.4 percent, following a 0.3 percent decline in April. Gasoline sales dropped a sharp 2.2 percent after declining 1.4 percent in April. Sales excluding autos and gasoline in May posted a modest 0.1 percent dip, matching the decline in April. Core components were mixed but mostly down.
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Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.
Why Investors Care
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![[Chart]](showimage.asp?imageid=22856)
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Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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