2012 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales
Released On 10/15/2012 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change0.9 %1.2 %0.7 %0.4 % to 1.3 %1.1 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change0.8 %1.0 %0.5 %0.0 % to 1.1 %1.1 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.1 %0.3 %0.5 %0.3 % to 0.5 %0.9 %

Highlights
The consumer was out spending more than expected in September-even after discounting gasoline prices. And also Apple appears to have bumped the numbers up. Total retail sales in September advanced 1.1 percent after gaining 1.2 percent the month before (originally up 0.9 percent). This was notably above market expectations for a 0.7 percent boost.

Motor vehicle sales increased 1.3 percent after a 1.8 percent jump in August.

Ex-auto sales jumped 1.1 percent, following a rise of 1.0 percent in August (originally up 0.8 percent). The consensus was for a 0.5 percent rise.

Gasoline sales continued strong gains, increasing 2.5 percent in September, following a 6.1 percent spike the prior month. Excluding both autos and gasoline components, sales still posted a healthy 0.9 percent gain, following a 0.3 percent gain in August (originally up 0.1 percent).

Core components showed widespread gains. Leading the way were electronics & appliance stores (up 4.5 percent), nonstore retailers (up 1.8 percent), and building materials & garden equipment (up 1.1 percent). Electronics & appliance store sales likely reflected to a notable degree sales of iPhone 5. Still, the broad based gains are encouraging.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Retail sales in August gained 0.9 percent after a 0.6 percent boost the prior month. Motor vehicle sales jumped 1.3 percent after a 0.1 percent rise in July. Ex-auto sales increased 0.8 percent, following a 0.8 percent advance in July. Gasoline prices played a big role in lifting retail sales. Gasoline station sales surged 5.5 percent in August, following a 0.4 percent rise in July. However, excluding both autos and gasoline components, sales edged up only 0.1 percent, following a 0.8 percent spike in July (originally up 0.9 percent). Core components were mixed with strength in building materials and food services & drinking places. Weakness was led by electronics & appliance stories and general merchandise.

Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/122/143/134/165/156/137/168/149/1410/1511/1412/13
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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