2012 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales
Released On 11/14/2012 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change1.1 %1.3 %-0.1 %-0.4 % to 0.3 %-0.3 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change1.1 %1.2 %0.2 %-0.4 % to 0.6 %0.0 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.9 %1.0 %0.2 %-0.2 % to 0.5 %-0.3 %

Highlights
Hurricane Sandy likely affected timing and components of retail sales in October. However, the bottom line is that consumer spending was down for the month. Total retail sales in October declined 0.3 percent after jumping 1.3 percent the month before (originally up 1.1 percent). Market expectations were for a 0.1 percent dip.

Motor vehicle sales dipped 1.5 percent after a 1.7 percent boost in September.

Ex-auto sales were unchanged, following a rise of 1.2 percent in September (originally up 1.1 percent). The consensus projected a 0.2 percent gain.

Gasoline sales advanced 1.4 percent in October, following a 2.5 percent spike the prior month. Excluding both autos and gasoline components, sales dropped 0.3 percent, following a 1.0 percent boost in September (originally up 0.9 percent).

Core components showed broad softening.

Market Consensus before announcement
Retail sales in September advanced 1.1 percent after gaining 1.2 percent the month before. Motor vehicle sales increased 1.3 percent after a 1.8 percent jump in August. Ex-auto sales jumped 1.1 percent, following a rise of 1.0 percent in August. Gasoline sales continued strong gains, increasing 2.5 percent in September, following a 6.1 percent spike the prior month. Excluding both autos and gasoline components, sales still posted a healthy 0.9 percent gain, following a 0.3 percent gain in August. Core components showed widespread gains. Leading the way were electronics & appliance stores, likely reflecting to a notable degree sales of iPhone 5.

Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/122/143/134/165/156/137/168/149/1410/1511/1412/13
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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