Econoday Economic Report: Empire State Mfg Survey August 15, 2012

2012 Economic Calendar

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Empire State Mfg Survey

Released On 8/15/2012 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
General Business Conditions Index - Level	7.39	7.00	-2.00 to 9.00	-5.85

Highlights
Orders are contracting in the New York manufacturing region pointing to further weakness in the nation's manufacturing sector. The Empire State index fell to minus 5.85 in August vs July's plus 7.39. The negative reading for August indicates monthly contraction in general business conditions. Specific readings on orders are negative with new orders at minus 5.50, which is a second straight month of moderate contraction, and with unfilled orders at minus 10.59, which is a second month of significant contraction and that follows a long string of moderate contraction.

Shipments and employment are still rising but won't for very much longer if new orders don't begin coming in. Other readings include a draw for inventories, a rise for prices, and a decline in six-month optimism.

Government data on the manufacturing sector through June was weakening while the ISM report showed extending weakness through July. Now this report points to continued trouble in August. The next August reading on the manufacturing sector will be the Philly Fed report tomorrow.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Empire State manufacturing index in July rose more than 5 points to 7.39 to indicate monthly growth in general business conditions. But this was offset by a decline in new orders. Weakness in orders points to slowing activity ahead for the New York region's manufacturing sector. Unfilled orders also contracted and steeply.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. Why Investors Care

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/17 2/15 3/15 4/16 5/15 6/15 7/16 8/15 9/17 10/15 11/15 12/17

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