2012 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 9/17/2012 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-5.85 -2.00 -10.00  to 5.00 -10.41 

Orders continue to fall and shipments continue to slow in the New York region's manufacturing sector. The Empire State general business conditions index fell more deeply into negative territory, to minus 10.41 for a second straight negative reading vs minus 5.85 in August. The new orders component is at minus 14.03 to signal significantly greater monthly contraction than August's minus 5.50. New orders first slipped into the negative column in July at minus 2.69. Unfilled orders, which have been shrinking all year, show their most severe rate of monthly contraction at minus 14.89. A partial offset to these order readings is an upturn in six-month expectations for new orders which is up nearly 15 points in the month to 17.02 for the best reading since May.

Shipments are at plus 2.75, down from 4.09 in August for the slowest rate of monthly growth of the year. The number of employees index is also positive but is also showing the year's slowest growth rate. Delivery times are slowing slightly which is a mild sign of strength while inventories are unchanged. Price readings show increasing pressure for inputs but some welcome pricing power for finished goods.

The factory sector appears to be bumping along as manufacturers, at least for now, ride out choppy conditions by relying on backlogs. Stock futures are softening following today's report. The Philly Fed, which has been weak since May, will be posted Thursday morning while Markit Economics, whose US data have been on the strong side, will offer its national view in a flash reading earlier that morning.

Consensus Outlook
The Empire State manufacturing index fell a sharp 13.24 points to minus 5.85 in August from July's plus 7.39. The negative reading for August indicates monthly contraction in general business conditions. This was the first negative figure since minus 7.22 for October 2011. The new orders index's rate of contraction worsened somewhat, slipping to minus 5.50 from minus 2.69 in July.

The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/172/153/154/165/156/157/168/159/1710/1511/1512/17
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

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