2012 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 11/15/2012 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-6.16 -5.00 -10.00  to 0.30 -5.22 

Hurricane Sandy and its aftermath appear to be having only limited impact on New York's manufacturing sector. The Empire State index shows another month of contraction in general activity, at minus 5.22 in November vs minus 6.16 in October, but key details show improvement especially shipments which surged to a very strong 14.59 and new orders which at 3.08 show their first monthly increase since June. Delivery times, which are especially sensitive to storm effects, are slowing but not by much and less so than in October. To keep production moving New York manufacturers are relying on inventories which show a sizable draw, one that will have to be replenished .

But there are also negatives in the report including a big contraction for employment which at minus 14.61 underscores the big jump, also reported at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning, in the latest jobless claims data. The general six-month outlook is less optimistic including for employment where the sample sees a slight contraction.

In a special question specifically about Sandy, only about a fifth of the Empire State sample reports any effect with most of this group reporting no more than one day of lost activity. The nation's manufacturing sector has been up and down and this report suggests that Sandy won't be shifting the balance to the downside. Watch for this morning's bookend to the Sandy story with the release of the Philly Fed's Mid-Atlantic manufacturing report later this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Consensus Outlook
The Empire State manufacturing index in October improved to minus 6.16 from minus 10.41 the prior month which indicates monthly contraction but at a less severe rate than September. The rate of contraction also eased for new orders which are at minus 8.97 versus September's minus 14.03.

The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/172/153/154/165/156/157/168/159/1710/1511/1512/17
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

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